FAQs

1. What exactly do I get as a subscriber? How much does this cost?

The $30/month subscription provides access to a private Telegram group where all MLB model selections are shared. Selections are posted only when the model’s win probability exceeds the implied probability of publicly available odds by a meaningful edge threshold. While 1–3 selections per day is typical, there may be days with no selections if no edges exist. Each selection includes a “good until” price, indicating the lowest odds at which the play maintains its required edge.

2. When will selections be posted each day? How many months will the subscription be active?

Selections will be posted each morning by 11:00 AM Pacific Time or before the first game’s scheduled first pitch, whichever comes first, unless otherwise noted in Telegram. The model will run from April 2025 through the end of August 2025. Access will be free for April 2025, with May 2025 being the first subscription month.

3. How are projections generated?

Each morning the model will be run for each matchup, using projected (actual when available) lineups. The model will project Baseruns for each team using the proprietary Miñoso Projection System and adjusted for home field advantage. The output for each matchup is a final win probability which is then compared to the implied win probability of publicly available odds (the model will just against odds from BetOnline).

4. How will selections be tracked?

All selections will be added upon completion to this 2025 MLB Model Results google sheet.

5. What is the historical performance of this model?

The 2025 MLB model is virtually identical to the 2024 model which was the debut season combining the best elements of the WAR model laid out so eloquently in Joe Peta's Trading Bases: How a Wall Street Trader Made a Fortune Betting on Baseball and my proprietary plate appearance & innings module, with player-level projections powered by the Miñoso Projection System. The 2024 Season saw model selections generate +22.87u on 654 selections with a ROI of 2.74%. History of all MLB models built can be found on the Model Results page.

6. How do I join the Telegram group?

To join the Telegram chat a link will be provided upon subscribing. On the first day of each new month all members of the group who have canceled their subscription or no longer subscribe will be promptly removed from the group.

7. Can I cancel at anytime?

Yes. Subscriptions are managed via Wix, with subscription details found on the Plans & Pricing page. You can cancel at any time before your next billing cycle.

8. Is this gambling advice?

No. This is not gambling advice or financial advice. The predictions are based on a proprietary statistical model and are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. How you choose to use this information is entirely up to you.